Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District special election, 2018/Polls

2018 → ← 2016

Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District

General Election Date March 13, 2018

Primary Election Date N/A

Election Winner: Pending

Incumbent prior to the election: Tim Murphy

Race Ratings Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic Inside Elections: Solid Democratic

2017-2018 Special Elections

Democrat Conor Lamb won the special election for Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District against Republican Rick Saccone on March 13, 2018, by less than half a point. The race was too close to call immediately following the election, and Saccone conceded to Lamb on March 21.

The special election was held to fill the vacancy created by the departure of incumbent Tim Murphy (R). Murphy announced his resignation in October 2017 following reports that he encouraged a woman with whom he had an extramarital affair to have an abortion. Lamb, Saccone, and Libertarian candidate Drew Miller competed for the seat.

For an overview of the race, click here.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Special election in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District
Poll	Lamb (D)	Saccone (R)	Other	Undecided	Margin of Error	Sample Size
Monmouth University, Low Turnout March 8-11, 2018	49%	47%	1%	3%	+/-5.1%	372 likely voters
Monmouth University, High Turnout March 8-11, 2018	51%	44%	1%	4%	+/-5.1%	394 likely voters
Monmouth University, Surge Model March 8-11, 2018	51%	45%	1%	3%	+/-5.1%	372 likely voters
Monmouth University, Low Turnout February 12-14, 2018	45%	50%	1%	4%	+/-5.5%	320 likely voters
Monmouth University, High Turnout February 12-14, 2018	44%	48%	2%	5%	+/-5.5%	379 likely voters
Monmouth University, Surge Model February 12-14, 2018	46%	49%	1%	4%	+/-5.5%	320 likely voters
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Special election in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District
Poll	Lamb (D)	Saccone (R)	Undecided	Margin of Error	Sample Size
RABA Research March 6-8, 2018	48%	44%	9%	+/-3.7%	707 voters
Emerson College March 1-3, 2018	48%	45%	7%	+/-4.8%	474 likely voters
Gravis Marketing February 13-15, 2018	40%	45%	15%	+/-4.2%	602 likely voters
DFM Research January 18-19, 2018	38%	41%	21%	+/-5.0%	384 district voters
Gravis Marketing January 3-5, 2018	34%	46%	20%	+/-4.3%	513 likely voters
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Pennsylvania heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

• Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania.
• Republicans held 12 of 17 U.S. House seats in Pennsylvania.

State executives

• As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 11 state executive positions, while six were held by nonpartisan officials.
• The governor of Pennsylvania was Democrat Tom Wolf.

State legislature

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the Pennsylvania General Assembly. They had a 120-79 majority in the state House and a 33-16 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

• Pennsylvania was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Tom Wolf (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Pennsylvania elections, 2018

Pennsylvania held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• One U.S. Senate seat
• 18 U.S. House seats
• Governor and lieutenant governor
• 25 of 50 state Senate seats
• 203 state House seats

Demographics

Demographic data for Pennsylvania
	Pennsylvania	U.S.
Total population:	12,791,904	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	44,743	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	81.6%	73.6%
Black/African American:	11%	12.6%
Asian:	3.1%	5.1%
Native American:	0.2%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0%	0.2%
Two or more:	2.1%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	6.4%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	89.2%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	28.6%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$53,599	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	15.9%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Pennsylvania. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Pennsylvania had a population of approximately 12,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Philadelphia (pop. est. 1.6 million), Pittsburgh (pop. est. 300,000), and Allentown (pop. est. 120,000).

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Pennsylvania Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Pennsylvania every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	48.6%	Hillary Clinton	47.9%	0.7%
2012	Barack Obama	52.1%	Mitt Romney	46.7%	5.4%
2008	Barack Obama	54.7%	John McCain	44.3%	10.4%
2004	John Kerry	51.0%	George Bush	48.5%	2.5%
2000	Al Gore	50.6%	George Bush	46.4%	4.2%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Patrick Toomey	48.8%	Katie McGinty	47.3%	1.5%
2012	Bob Casey	53.7%	Tom Smith	44.6%	9.1%
2010	Patrick Toomey	51.0%	Joe Sestak	49.0%	2.0%
2006	Bob Casey	58.7%	Rick Santorum	41.3%	17.4%
2004	Arlen Specter	52.6%	Joseph Hoeffel	42.0%	10.6%
2000	Rick Santorum	52.4%	Ron Klink	45.5%	6.9%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Pennsylvania.

Election results (Governor), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Tom Wolf	54.9%	Thomas Corbett	45.1%	9.8%
2010	Thomas Corbett	54.5%	Dan Onorato	45.5%	9.0%
2006	Ed Rendell	60.4%	Lynn Swann	39.6%	20.8%
2002	Ed Rendell	53.4%	Mike Fisher	44.3%	9.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	13	72.2%	5	27.8%	R+8
2014	13	72.2%	5	27.8%	R+8
2012	13	72.2%	5	27.8%	R+8
2010	12	63.2%	7	36.8%	R+5
2008	7	36.8%	12	63.2%	D+5
2006	8	42.1%	11	57.9%	D+3
2004	12	63.2%	7	36.8%	R+5
2002	12	63.2%	7	36.8%	R+5
2000	11	52.4%	10	47.6%	R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2025
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
Governor	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Senate	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	_

See also

• Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)
• Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District special election, 2018
• Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District
• Tim Murphy (Pennsylvania)

Footnotes

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Pennsylvania's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

John Fetterman (D)

David McCormick (R)

Representatives

District 1

Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

District 2

Brendan Boyle (D)

District 3

Dwight Evans (D)

District 4

Madeleine Dean (D)

District 5

Mary Scanlon (D)

District 6

Chrissy Houlahan (D)

District 7

Ryan Mackenzie (R)

District 8

Rob Bresnahan (R)

District 9

Dan Meuser (R)

District 10

Scott Perry (R)

District 11

Lloyd Smucker (R)

District 12

Summer Lee (D)

District 13

John Joyce (R)

District 14

Guy Reschenthaler (R)

District 15

Glenn Thompson (R)

District 16

Mike Kelly (R)

District 17

Chris Deluzio (D)

Republican Party (11)

Democratic Party (8)